What if the Wallabies never return to the top of the world? Or even get near it again? They are questions no Wallabies fan or Rugby Australia administrator would dare ask themselves. But what if this is their lot now – cycling somewhere between six and 10 (their new spot) in the men’s world rankings, depending on how the winds are blowing? Don’t be fooled by the fightback in Sydney – credit to the Wallabies, but that was the All Blacks’ fault more than anything. What if Australia is rugby’s version of the West Indies cricket side – a once-major global power in the sport now reduced to also-rans where an upset win is about all they can hope for?
An observation…
The Windies terrorised fellow international sides with some of the game’s all-time greats, but have battled selection issues, board dysfunction and economic issues to plunge down the world rankings – and while they managed to win the 2016 World T20 tournament, they were absent from the last 50-over World Cup and barely make a ripple in the World Test Championship. The reasons behind the Wallabies drop-off are different but the result could well be the same.
An explanation…
Similarly to the Windies, Australia enjoyed a golden era of players – Horan, Little, Gregan, Larkham, Eales and more – but failed to capitalise on their success, while expanded Super Rugby too quickly and diluted their talent pool as fans switched off when the results began to get worse. Dave Rennie, Eddie Jones and Joe Schmidt all have their upsides as coaches – but none of them are miracle-workers and it’s getting worse. The current generation of Wallabies players look several rungs below the side that made the 2015 World Cup final (so do the All Blacks to be fair), who were again not as good as their 1990s predecessors who won two World Cups and rallied to reach another final in 2003.
The depth in Australian rugby is non-existent – 16 debutants this year suggests there are a group of players all at a certain level (”mid”, as the kids say) and Joe Schmidt is trying to find a diamond in the rough that maybe he could meld into something. That’s more hit-and-hope than anything. And it rarely works.
A prediction…
Given the way the sport has fallen off a cliff in interest across the Tasman, it’s not going to come back any time soon. The nearly 70,000 who packed into Accor Stadium are evidence there’s still a sense of occasion around Bledisloe Cups, but that is about all the sport has in Australia. Memories. Australians back winners – they’re about the only country in the world that follows swimming between Olympics, because they’re good at it.
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They back the AFL in certain states, knowing an Australian team must win it every year. Same with State of Origin. So too, the NRL – an Australian team is virtually guaranteed to win it (sorry, Warriors fans). Until the Wallabies or their Super Rugby sides start winning, the media interest and depth pool is likely to only get worse.
A concern…
The worry for New Zealand Rugby is by hitching their wagon to Australia with Super Rugby, they need them to be good, for commercial and sporting high-performance reasons. Forget Auckland. Maybe it’s a case of when Australian rugby is strong, New Zealand Rugby is strong.
– Wallabies v All Blacks 7.05pm Saturday. Listen live on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio. Follow the action live at nzherald.co.nz.
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