The All Blacks bookended their patchy Rugby Championship campaign with a dominant win over the Wallabies to banish their six-year winless Wellington hoodoo, honour Sam Cane’s century and TJ Perenara’s last home Test, and inject a dollop of much-needed confidence before an arduous northern tour.
Successive victories against the Wallabies improved the All Blacks’ tournament to 3-3 to finish second, with the world champion Springboks adding another trophy to their bulging cabinet.
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While the All Blacks’ sentimental conclusion offered promise, much work remains. Losing the Rugby Championship title for the first time since 2019, the Freedom Cup for the first time in 15 years, dictates this tournament was a failure by their standards.
Nine Tests in, having forged a fluctuating six win, three loss tenure to date, Scott Robertson’s maiden season at the helm is delicately poised. And with three of the north’s leading nations looming large, it doesn’t get any easier from here.
Read on as we review their Rugby Championship campaign.
ATTACK
When they were good, the All Blacks were untouchable. They scored four tries at Ellis Park to initially stun the Springboks. And they blew the Wallabies away with three tries in the opening quarter in Sydney.
In six outings the stats say the All Blacks claimed 22 tries (second ranked), made 45 clean breaks (second), beat 165 defenders (first), carried 756 times (first) and threw 54 offloads (first).
They were, however, wildly inconsistent. The All Blacks blew a 12-point lead against Argentina in their shock loss in Wellington, a 10-point advantage over the Boks at Ellis Park and their three-try buffer in Sydney to collapse. Prior to their Wellington win, the All Blacks failed to score a point in five straight final quarters.
Robertson extolled the All Blacks ability to create attacking chances but, in the same breath, expressed regular frustration with their failure to ruthlessly execute those.
The concern for the All Blacks is they often projected their best from unstructured play. They are lethal from turnovers or when attacking fractured defensives lines when playmakers coast across field to spot space and unleash Will Jordan or Caleb Clarke. The All Blacks haven’t yet, though, consistently proven their ability to convert pressure into points through patience.
Cortez Ratima has taken his opportunity at halfback for the All Blacks SAEED KHAN/AFP via Getty Images
This is their challenge. Ireland, England and France will demand the All Blacks build phases, continuity, and ruthlessly finish. Against Ireland, world No. 1, the All Blacks may only get three chances to strike. Blowing one of those could define a win or loss in the World Cup quarterfinal rematch.
It perhaps shouldn’t surprise the All Blacks attack is experiencing growing pains. Leon MacDonald’s abrupt exit on the eve of the Rugby Championship forced significant structural change, with Scott Hansen switching from defence to lead the team’s attack. Frequent changes in the backline, some forced through injuries, others as Robertson attempts to settle on his best side, is another contributing factor.
The second-half performance in Wellington, where the All Blacks manipulated the Wallabies’ defence by going direct and then exposing them wide, was a notable step forward.
DEFENCE
Improving. Conceding 38 points in the loss to the Pumas in Wellington and 28 in their Sydney escape is too many. In the first example, the All Blacks lacked the physicality and mental intent. In the second they were caught short by a Joe Schmidt lineout special and then, having seemingly burst the dam, clocked off to leave themselves under siege following two late yellow cards.
Otherwise, though, the All Blacks have largely employed aggressive intent in their quest to fuel their attack. They ranked first in the Rugby Championship for tackle percentage which enhances their ability to snaffle turnovers through dominant defence. Those turnover threats are across the park for the All Blacks, too, from forwards to their wingers.
The worry for the All Blacks is in each of their first looks at the Pumas, Springboks, and Wallabies they conceded more points than the rematches. By some distance, too.
Heading north there are no second chances. The spotlight therefore falls on the coaches to devise plans and avoid set move specials that Ireland, in particular, will conjure.
SET PIECE
Other than the odd lineout wobble, the All Blacks strong, stable foundations have morphed from weakness to weapon. Jason Ryan’s forward pack ranked first in the scrum (91%) and lineout (88%) departments. The north have long renowned their set piece prowess but the All Blacks enjoyed parity against the Springboks’ vaunted pack – and dominated England’s scrum in July.
The All Blacks propping rotation continues to blossom. Tyrel Lomax has owned the tighthead role to come of age at 28. Ethan de Groot and Pasilio Tosi are 26; Tamaiti Williams and Fletcher Newell 24. Aside from their scrummaging, the props, with de Groot trailing the others, often perform the deft art of passing, offloading, late at the line to create second man space for their playmakers.
The All Blacks will be on red alert for Maro Itoje after he caused havoc with their lineout in the two narrow home victories over England in July, though. Robertson cannot afford to lose Codie Taylor as, without the veteran hooker, the All Blacks lineout throwing is decidedly vulnerable.
Tupou Vaa’i has emerged as a quality lock for the All Blacks this season Hannah Peters/Getty Images
DISCIPLINE
Seven yellow cards is fast becoming a serious issue for the All Blacks. The timing of those has hurt, too, with two coming in the last 15 minutes against the Wallabies in Sydney – and one in the final 10 minutes of each loss in South Africa.
In their last outing in Wellington the All Blacks struggled to adjust to Georgian referee Nika Amashukeli to concede the first six penalties and land firmly on the backfoot as a direct result.
Cards come when problems compound for the All Blacks. Their game management at the backend of tight, tense Tests, specifically their kicking strategy and execution, has left the All Blacks stuck in their half defending for long periods.
As pressure and penalties mount, cards have proven costly.
BEST PERFORMERS
The most promising prospects have emerged from youth. Lock was a major concern following Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock’s retirements, but Tupou Vaa’i has stepped into the breach to lead the lineout in Scott Barrett’s early season absence and continued his growth with standout performances in South Africa.
Wallace Sititi is the find of the season – a gifted, confident, athletic, loose forward who possesses fast feet that leave defenders for dead at the line. Sititi has a hunger for relentless ball carrying, coupled with lineout prowess and an array of passing skills. He really can do it all. And the 22-year-old is yet to start in his natural home at the back of the scrum.
Two yellow cards aside, Caleb Clarke struck form with six tries in four starts to reclaim the left wing for the first time in two years. His transformation owes to a vastly improved work-rate, regularly roaming off his wing seeking work, and aerial ability that will be highly valued in the northern winter.
Will Jordan, with four tries, is another try-scoring machine. Initially tentative in his comeback from shoulder surgery, and after a false start against the Springboks, Jordan has relished his return to fullback. He’s back hitting the ball at blinding pace to slice through holes and blitz defenders. Jordan’s kicking game and high ball bravery will be tested but, with 35 tries from 37 Tests, there is no denying his attacking potency.
Whether it’s as a dynamic super sub off the bench or in a starting loosehead capacity Tamaiti Williams is a powerhouse prop to watch – and Cortez Ratima grasped his chance at halfback with his nuggety defence and speed suiting the All Blacks’ desire to play at pace.
TESTING NORTHERN TOUR
Robertson will be expected to widely rotate for the All Blacks first stop on their venture north. Japan, under Eddie Jones, after losing 41-17 to Fiji in their last Pacific Nations Cup match, present the ideal opposition to hand many sparingly used fringe players game time.
After a likely romp in the Tokyo sun, though, darkness dawns in the form of three Tests in 15 days against England, Ireland and France.
Robertson must settle on his first-choice team to prepare for that gruelling stretch against three of the world’s top five ranked teams.
By the time they arrive in Turin for the improving Italians, for their 14th and final Test of the year, the All Blacks will be running on fumes.
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