It is now less than four weeks until Ireland face down the All Blacks at Aviva Stadium.
The World Cup quarter-final rematch is already a sell-out, and Scott Robertson’s side will be looking to settle some old scores because New Zealand, as it happens, have been defeated on their past two visits to the capital, and haven’t won a game on Irish soil since 2016.
It’s going to be a blockbuster occasion, and Andy Farrell and his backroom team have been busily formulating a plan.
Ireland Rugby Press Conference, Sandton Hotel, Johannesburg, South Africa 4/7/2024
Head coach Andy Farrell
Pic: INPHO/Dan Sheridan
The Ireland boss is set to name his training squad next week ahead of the Autumn Nations series.
This November schedule, which also features games against Argentina, Fiji and Australia, will be Farrell’s final Ireland assignment before he takes a break to prepare the British and Irish Lions for the summer tour of Australia next year.
He will be keen to leave this squad in a good place, beginning with the selection for the All Blacks game.
After four rounds of URC action, here’s how Ireland are shaping up ahead of that eagerly-anticipated clash next month:
BACK THREE
Hugo Keenan looked sharp against Munster on Saturday, and the Leinster full-back is back in the groove after his sojourn with the Sevens side at the Paris Olympics.
James Lowe has also looked the part, but Farrell will be hoping to see Jordan Larmour and Jimmy O’Brien back on the provincial beat in the coming weeks.
James Lowe of Leinster celebrates after scoring his side’s first try during the URC match between Leinster and Munster at Croke Park in Dublin. Pic: Brendan Moran/Sportsfile
Mack Hansen, meanwhile, is back in the groove with Connacht this term after a nasty shoulder injury last season. Calvin Nash has continued to show strong form for Munster, while Jacob Stockdale has been playing some of his best rugby in years for Ulster recently.
After his stellar showings against the Springboks at fullback, Jamie Osborne has been putting in some big shifts in midfield for Leinster, but Farrell knows that the Naas native is more than a safe pair of hands in the backfield, if called upon.
In terms of potential bolters, Connacht’s South African-born wing Shayne Bolton was pencilled in to tour with Emerging Ireland before an injury derailed that plan.
Farrell may invite Bolton into camp to take another look at this strong-running operator.
But a familiar back three of Keenan, Lowe and Hansen looks likely first up.
MIDFIELD
Garry Ringrose was razor-sharp at Croke Park, while Osborne was punchy and direct.
Bundee Aki is still moving up the gears since he made his seasonal bow with Connacht a few weeks ago, but Farrell knows the powerful midfielder is a Test match animal.
Bundee Aki. Pic Harry Murphy/Sportsfile
In a further boost to the Ireland centre stocks, Leinster have confirmed that Robbie Henshaw will return to full training this week.
Stuart McCloskey is still sidelined with an ankle injury, meaning his young team-mate Jude Postlethwaite, who impressed on the Emerging Ireland tour, might elbow his way into international contention next month. Aki and Ringrose looks a potent combination to tackle the All Blacks.
HALF-BACKS
All four frontline half-backs looked in good nick during Saturday’s clash at Croker. Jamison Gibson-Park is looking fresh and hungry after he was forced to miss the South Africa tour due to a hamstring injury.
Jack Crowley did his best in difficult circumstances against a dominant Leinster side, while Ciarán Frawley’s stock has risen even further with a strong showing at No10 last weekend. Craig Casey is fit and firing, too.
Craig Casey of Munster after the Investec Champions Cup Round of 16 match between Northampton Saints and Munster at cinch Stadium at Franklin’s Gardens in Northampton, England. Pic: Brendan Moran/Sportsfile
The big question is whether Farrell will continue to lean on Conor Murray.
The veteran Munster scrum-half has been his trusted lieutenant for many years.
Murray will be 36 in April and, at some stage, the Ireland management have to start thinking about the 2027 World Cup.
On current form, Connacht scrum-half Ben Murphy has been a revelation, and would be fully deserving of a call-up.
The 23-year-old is currently keeping Caolin Blade, who toured with Ireland in the summer, out of the starting line-up.
Sam Prendergast is also likely to get the call ahead of the Byrne brothers after his exploits on the Emerging Ireland tour.
In terms of the opening weekend, Gibson-Park and Crowley look nailed on.
FRONT ROW
Any change to the pecking order in this department will be purely injury-enforced. Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong continue to operate at a level above every other prop in the country.
The Ireland management know they will have to find an alternative to Cian Healy at loosehead in the coming years, but the 37-year-old will be on board for November when, for good measure, he will likely surpass Brian O’Driscoll’s record as Ireland’s most-capped player.
Investec Champions Cup Round 4, Dexcom Stadium, Galway 19/1/2024 Connacht vs Bristol Bears Connacht’s Finlay Bealham. Pic: INPHO/Bryan Keane
Finlay Bealham will be involved, and his fellow Connacht tighthead Jack Aungier may also get a call, although Ulster’s Tom O’Toole has plenty of credit in the bank while Munster’s Oli Jager is also highly rated.
Hooker is where we will see big changes. As it stands, the Leinster pair of Dan Sheehan and Ronan Kelleher are both ruled out of the autumn reckoning.
It looks like Ulster’s Rob Herring and Tom Stewart will also be sidelined.
So, Farrell will need to drill down into the depth chart and explore options outside his four frontline choices.
Connacht’s Dave Heffernan and Munster’s Niall Scannell look like the next cabs off the rank. Heffernan has only won five caps, while Scannell has not featured for Ireland since the 2019 World Cup.
Scannell offers a lot of setpiece surety, but Farrell may opt for Heffernan’s power in the loose against the All Blacks from the off, with the Ballina man packing down between Porter and Furlong in the front row.
SECOND ROW
Joe McCarthy has been out of action since he injured his hamstring against Treviso a fortnight ago. The expectation is that the Leinster second row will be right for November.
James Ryan has started the season like a train, while Tadhg Beirne is a remarkably consistent operator.
Iain Henderson should be in the mix as usual, while Cormac Izuchukwu is likely to make his Test bow – either at lock or on the flank- against Fiji.
BKT United Rugby Championship, Thomond Park, Limerick 26/12/2023 Munster vs Leinster Munster’s Jack O’Donoghue tackles Joe McCarthy of Leinster. Pic: INPHO/Ben Brady
It would no surprise if Farrell deployed Beirne on the blindside flank again to accommodate Ryan and McCarthy in the second row.
It worked brilliantly in the second Test against the Springboks and it could rattle the All Blacks pack, too.
BACK ROW
That victory in Durban felt like a changing-of-the-guard moment. Peter O’Mahony was benched and Caelan Doris took over the captaincy. It’s a trend that is likely to continue. Doris has since inherited the Leinster captaincy and, if anything, he’s looked even better this season.
Josh van der Flier remains Ireland’s premier openside flanker. Ulster’s Harry Sheridan looks like a potential squad bolter with a big future.
Ryan Baird and Jack Conan look like potent bench options. But the backrow to face Ardea and Co will be a familiar and trusted combination.
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