Match Preview – Ireland vs New Zealand

October 18, 2024

Johnny Sexton’s Ireland and Aaron Smith’s New Zealand clash in a Rugby World Cup quarter-final blockbuster on Saturday

Ahead of Ireland’s mammoth Rugby World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand on Saturday, we look at a double chance at history for Andy Farrell’s side and the All Blacks’ revenge mission…

Ireland’s World Cup quarter-final hoodoo

For all their successes over the last decade or so, in clinching four Six Nations titles, two Grand Slams, a further Triple Crown, Test series wins in New Zealand and Australia, five Test victories over South Africa and holding a No 1 world ranking since July 2022, Ireland’s record at Rugby World Cups is poor.

Never in their history have Ireland gone beyond the quarter-finals of a World Cup, suffering seven eliminations at the last-eight stage, including at the last three World Cups.

Be it an injury-crisis as in 2015 vs Argentina, seeming to choke on the day as in 2011 vs Wales, or simply coming up against opponents far stronger than them as in 2003 and 2019 vs France and New Zealand respectively, it is a stain on Irish rugby that they have never been involved in the business end of the tournament.

Ireland’s 2015 Rugby World Cup quarter-final exit to Argentina was perhaps their greatest chance to go deep in the tournament

Perhaps Ireland’s greatest chance at World Cup success and a deep run was at the 2015 tournament in England. They entered as back-to-back Six Nations champions (2014, 2015), and had beaten South Africa, Australia and Argentina in the year and a half before the tournament.

Having beaten France to top their pool and avoid an all-star All Blacks team in the quarters back then, Ireland were drawn with Argentina, but had to play them without the entire spine and leadership of their side as lock and captain Paul O’Connell (hamstring), out-half Johnny Sexton (groin), blindside Peter O’Mahony (knee), outside-centre and key defensive man Jared Payne (foot) and openside Sean O’Brien (suspended) were all ruled out.

They started the game terribly, and though they fought from 17-0 down to get to 20-17 behind, they were floored by late scores and exited with a familiar feeling.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Andy Farrell insists the fact Ireland are mentioned in the same bracket as New Zealand shows how far they have come

Four years later in Japan, Ireland – Grand Slam champions in 2018, but a side struggling for form in 2019 – proceeded to lose to the hosts in their pool, thus landing New Zealand in the quarters and being dispatched 46-14.

In the first two editions of the Rugby World Cup in 1987 and 1991, Ireland also made the quarter-finals, but were unheralded sides not expected to progress further. In that first World Cup, they were well beaten by Australia 33-15 in Sydney, but four years later they gave the Wallabies – the eventual champions – a massive scare as huge underdogs in Dublin, with only a late Michael Lynagh try pinching a 19-18 win.

Ireland are now considered one of rugby’s best and most talented sides, though facing the All Blacks on Saturday is no easy task, by any stretch, with the lopsidedness of the 2023 World Cup and the fact the draw was done over three years ago having a lot to answer for. Indeed, two of the world’s top four sides in Ireland, New Zealand, France and South Africa will exit over the weekend.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Farrell and Johnny Sexton said there is ‘nothing personal’ with New Zealand ahead of the quarter-final

Having had to beat South Africa and Scotland already to get this far, Ireland have done it tough. A history-making victory on Saturday would turn a sure-to-be already green Stade de France chaotic with joy.

Ireland have never won a Rugby World Cup quarter-final in history, losing all seven they have been in (1987, 1991, 1995, 2003, 2011, 2015, 2019).

Incredibly, they haven’t actually led in a quarter-final since June 1995, vs France in Durban, when they led in the 39th minute, before losing 36-12.

It has therefore been 360 minutes of Rugby World Cup quarter-final action without Ireland leading, across 4.5 Tests, 18 years and 10,351 days.

Farrell’s side on cusp of levelling world record winning run in men’s Test rugby

Ireland will make history with a first World Cup semi-final place if they win on Saturday, but they will also tie the world record for the longest winning run in men’s Test rugby should they do so.

Nobody has won more than 18 Tests in a row before, despite all the talented and fearsome sides – All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks among them – who have come before.

A win vs the All Blacks in Paris would be Ireland’s 18th win in succession, and 30th in the last 32, having already beaten every Tier 1 side in the world – bar Argentina, who they defeated in November 2021 – during the winning run so far.

Ireland are currently on a superb run of 17 Test victories in succession

Only the All Blacks of 2015/16 and Eddie Jones’ England of 2016/2017 have won 18 in a row before. The side to end both those runs? Ireland. They beat New Zealand 40-29 in Chicago in November 2016 to end their run at 18, before doing the same to England in March 2017 in Dublin with a 13-9 success.

Ireland’s current run of wins began with their epic 2-1 series victory vs the All Blacks in New Zealand in July 2022, as they fought from 1-0 down to win Tests two and three and claim an outstanding success – one which placed them as No 1 in the world rankings, which they have not let slip since.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky Sports’ James Cole examines whether Ireland’s dominant win over Scotland showed why many have regarded them as one of the favourites to win the Rugby World Cup

Since then, November Test wins vs South Africa, Fiji and Australia, a Six Nations Grand Slam vs Wales, France, Italy, Scotland and England, August warm-up wins vs Italy, England and Samoa, and World Cup Pool B wins vs Romania, Tonga, South Africa and Scotland have followed.

See Ireland’s full run of victories, with scorelines, locations and dates below…

Ireland’s current 17-Test winning run

New Zealand 12-23 Ireland Dunedin, July 9 2022 New Zealand 22-32 Ireland Wellington, July 16 2022 Ireland 19-16 South Africa Dublin, November 5 2022 Ireland 35-17 Fiji Dublin, November 12 2022 Ireland 13-10 Australia Dublin, November 19 2022 Wales 10-34 Ireland Cardiff, February 4 2023 Ireland 32-19 France Dublin, February 11 2023 Italy 20-34 Ireland Rome, February 25 2023 Scotland 7-22 Ireland Edinburgh, March 12 2023 Ireland 29-16 England Dublin, March 18 2023 Ireland 33-17 Italy Dublin, August 5 2023 Ireland 29-10 England Dublin, August 19 2023 Ireland 17-13 Samoa Bayonne, August 26 2023 Ireland 82-8 Romania Bordeaux, September 9 2023 Ireland 59-16 Tonga Nantes, September 16 2023 South Africa 8-13 Ireland Paris, September 23 2023 Ireland 36-14 Scotland Paris, October 7 2023 Ireland vs New Zealand? Paris, October 14 2023

All Blacks firmly have revenge on their minds for series loss on home soil

For the All Blacks, much of the talk emanating from their camp and media this week has surrounded a revenge mission vs Ireland for that series defeat on home soil in July 2022.

That series loss was the first time New Zealand had lost back-to-back home games since 1998, a first home series defeat since 1994 (2-0 vs France), and a first three-Test home series defeat since 1986 (2-1 vs Australia).

This may not be a vintage All Blacks side, and one which lost their opening World Cup game 27-13 to France after a feeble second-half display, but they still contain outstanding quality in certain positions, and six former World Cup winners within the squad in Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith, Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Dan Coles and Sam Whitelock.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Watch the best of the action from New Zealand’s huge win against Italy at the Rugby World Cup

Facing an Ireland side who many claim are favourites, who will have a wealth of pressure on their shoulders, who have never tasted quarter-final success before, and who have beaten New Zealand three times from the last four meetings, the ingredients are there for a snorting All Blacks to come out hyper aggressive and ready to play.

No one in rugby cuts sides open like New Zealand, even now, and they are an opponent sides are never safe against, due to that ability to score tries from anywhere. In No 8 Ardie Savea, outside-centre Rieko Ioane and wing Will Jordan, they have three of the best players on the planet.

New Zealand No 8 Ardie Savea is one of the finest rugby players in the world

“We learnt a lot during that series [Ireland 2-1 win in New Zealand], it was a challenging time, some of the most challenging times we’ve faced as an All Black team, and personally, losing the series in our back yard,” Beauden Barrett told media.

“What we know is the beast that Ireland are and if you allow them to dictate up front and play the way they want to, they’re a tough team to stop.

Beauden Barrett told media the All Blacks have the home series defeat to Ireland and possible revenge on their minds

“It’s going to be great because there are a lot of us who are pretty keen to get one up on them and still we’re hurting from what happened last year.”