Williams has prepared a paper arguing the most striking change since rugby turned professional has been the increase in “ball in play” time. From a mere 25 minutes 45 seconds at the 1995 World Cup, it jumped to 34 minutes 18 seconds in the 2023 tournament – a whopping 33% increase.
And he is predicting this trend will continue, with “ball-in-play” time potentially reaching more than 40 minutes by 2051.
Associated with this, Williams points to the evolution of other core aspects of rugby:
• Fewer scrums, thanks to improved skills.
• Fewer lineouts, with teams preferring to keep the ball in play.
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• More ball carries, tackles and rucks because of better fitness and strategy.
• Fewer turnovers, reflecting higher skill levels.
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• And perhaps more surprisingly, fewer offloads (as a result of increasingly cautious players and coaches).
With fewer scrums and lineouts, the need for some player qualities will diminish and other player specialities may emerge.
Either way, with the ball in play more, the emphasis on fitness will grow significantly – and as a result lower down the chain there will be an expanding need to embed better physical education programmes within senior school cycles.
“Scrums and lineouts have also become faster, making aerobic capacity of players more important,” Williams said. “And as the game gets faster, the skill level will need to be higher.
“Bigger, taller players will always be in demand for a game that is all about contact, but we also need players who can get off the ground and stay on their feet longer.”
However, to supplement that, there would also still be a need for smaller players with an ability to avoid contact.
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Williams noted how we are already seeing the role of halfback changing in the post-Aaron Smith All Blacks.
“At around 90kg, we are seeing Cam Roigard as a half-forward halfback with his ability to carry.”
The success of innovations like the 50-22 law has paved the way for more creative thinking in rugby and Williams sees another game-changer as being the potential introduction of rolling substitutions or smaller reserve benches.
“By allowing players to sub in and out more freely, we could see a faster-paced game and the emergence of more specialised roles. Alternatively, smaller benches with less subbing, may require starting players to have to play for longer.”
Williams reckons this means in decades to come rugby players will be likely to need to be leaner and more powerful, have greater stamina and better contact skills around the ruck and tackle, and be able to maintain high-intensity performance for longer stretches.
In the evolving game demarcations between No 8, blindside and openside flankers might also become more blurred, with less defined roles. And taller props may come into vogue, giving scope to lift players higher in lineouts.
Meanwhile, the looming challenge for schools will be to give players, at U14 and U15 levels in particular, a chance to experience in multiple roles rather than have them specialising, to build a broader base of skills.
Rugby, Williams argues, is essentially a late specialisation sport given physical maturity is so vital in player development and it was interesting to see New Zealand Schools move a number of players positionally during their matches.
For instance, Palmerston North Boys’ High School lock Bradley Tocker was preferred as flanker, while Williams also noted that as a Manawatū sprint champion, he could just as easily have been on the wing.
In this respect Williams talks of a new breed of “hybrid player” emerging and cites last year’s New Zealand Schools star, Oli Mathis, who a week ago appeared on the right wing for Waikato against Taranaki in the NPC, having initially been selected as a flanker.
Similarly, Williams can envisage Schools’ star fullback, Cohen Norrie, playing as halfback in a national Sevens team, given his particular skillset.
And on that subject, Williams thinks there needs to be a significant shift in New Zealand’s approach to rugby sevens.
“Rather than being a fallback for those who don’t make the cut in 15s, sevens should become a crucial development pathway for backs and back rows.
“This format offers an opportunity to hone game awareness and ball-handling skills, potentially producing more well-rounded players for the 15-a-side game.”
Williams is also predicting advanced analytics, AI (artificial intelligence) technology and data will increasingly become the backbone of rugby strategy as teams search for an edge over their competitors.
“From player development to split-second decisions on the field, data will drive the game like never before.
“Wearable technology, already in use but plagued by reliability issues, is set for a major upgrade. As these devices improve, they’ll offer an unprecedented window into player performance and physical condition in real time.”
New Zealand Rugby already maintains a detailed archive of youth players. Williams said high-performance staff view footage of about 95% of top-tier First XV matches nationally and they have a catalogue of more than 100 match video clips of 100 players, which gives them a database with 10,000 entries.
In terms of Schools and age-group teams, New Zealand Rugby have expert independent individual selectors for every position, from prop to fullback, while conversations with All Blacks coaches help direct what they are looking for in future players.
From the New Zealand U20 team history shows about 80% get to play Super Rugby Pacific, while typically 50% of the Schools team go on to make the U20s.
“With the average age of players entering professional rugby being 25-26, you can’t make decisions based on one week in October when they are aged 16 to 18, but you can often detect the attributes that will be a precursor to success.
Meanwhile, as the rules change, and tactics evolve, the dictates of positions may change.
At the 1995 World Cup, there were 37 lineouts per game, and last year that was down to 27. If that projection continues, by 2051 it could be down to 16-20 lineouts, and big, tall locks may no longer be quite so vital.
Similarly, scrums per game decreased from 23 in 1995 to 15 in 2023, and Williams is projecting this to further reduce to 11.5 by 2051.
“This is the sort of thing we need to start thinking about. What are the skillsets we want to bring out at school level? This is the space I live in.”
The fact New Zealand has a smaller base of registered male rugby players than most international rivals means it is vital to retain an edge in player development and recruitment.
Williams also pondered whether rugby would start seeking out players with specific physical and mental attributes from a young age in a bid to expand the talent pool – or even whether New Zealand should stand history on its head and turn to Australian rugby league and scout players from their clubs.
“The unwritten rule of recruiting solely from one’s own province or country is fading. Clubs may increasingly look to other sports, like rugby league in Australia to attract athletic talent.”
Māori U18 v NZ Schools: “Like Munster versus the All Blacks”
Asked for his reaction to New Zealand Māori U18s beating New Zealand Schools 22-15 in Hamilton, Williams said the fact the contest came just four days after Schools had been edged out by a very strong Australian U18 team was a strong mitigating factor.
“That match took a lot out of them. The Schools team put a lot of effort into their ‘test match’ and would have felt the effects in that Māori game.
“Schools were flat, while Māori were really up for it. For them, it was like Munster versus the All Blacks.
“However, you need to give the Māori a huge amount of credit, they were really up for it.
He also noted there had been “the most out-of-school players ever” within the New Zealand Barbarians and Māori cohort.
“Māori were last year beaten 41-5 by the Barbarians, but this year had a stronger cohort. This year the key U18 performers were mostly out of school and linked to academies. Kahu Carey and his selectors chose the team astutely.”
Overall, Williams was delighted with the tournament series. Rather than results, the real value of the matches lay in seeing such a broad spectrum of players in a high-performance environment.
“Counting the Chiefs U18s we had more than 100 players on stage at a level they hadn’t performed at all year. And a number of the Schools, Barbarians and Māori players put their hand up.”
Lock Johnny Falloon was a prime example, having firstly been drafted into the Barbarians and then into the New Zealand Schools team through injury.
“We gave him an opportunity and he had to step up. But what was really great to see was that Rathkeale College [Masterton] has a programme that can produce a player like that.”
Having players in camp at St Paul’s Collegiate was all about giving players the tools to cope in the professional environment in six to eight years.
And player feedback suggested that for many it was the best rugby experience they had ever had.
“The objective was to educate and expose the players to what the next rugby step looks like, so they can walk away motivated.
“Sixty to 70% of these boys will get there.”
What happens next?
Players from New Zealand Schools, Barbarians and NZ Māori have now moved back into their school environments to complete exams and schooling commitments.
But the Sevens season is just around the corner, with the schools’ New Zealand Condors Sevens qualifiers and finals (at Blake Park, Mount Maunganui from November 30-December 1).
There will once again be a New Zealand U18 Sevens team selected to take part in the Global Youth Sevens in Auckland, December 13-15.
Meanwhile, many players will be considering their next rugby step when they leave school, including joining provincial union academies, where they can develop their rugby alongside studies or work.
New Zealand Rugby’s player development team will be moving around the country, along with the national U20 coaches, for visits to each of the five Super Rugby regions from November 11-24.
There will be player fitness testing and information presented regarding the New Zealand U20 programme for 2025 and expectations in terms of what coaches are looking for when selecting their team ahead of squad selection in April 2025.
New Zealand’s U20 programme in 2025 will be much the same as 2024, with a Rugby Championship in May, involving Australia, South Africa and Argentina and the Junior World Cup in June-July, featuring the top 12 teams from around the globe.
Another title for Kelston
Auckland First XV rugby champions Kelston Boys’ High have also won the 2024 Auckland Secondary Schools Senior Sevens tournament to qualify for the New Zealand Condors Sevens Nationals in Mount Maunganui.
Kelston beat Sacred Heart 33-17 in the final, having earlier beaten Aorere College 36-0, Liston College 24-10, St Peter’s 22-12, St Paul’s College 36-7 and then edging out Mt Albert Grammar 26-19 in the semifinals.
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