Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks have a rare opportunity to go unbeaten this November and anything less should be seen as a failure.
The squad arrives on northern hemisphere shores after winning the Rugby Championship, their first full tournament success since 2009, having won a truncated version in 2019.
The back-to-back World Cup winners will face Scotland, England and Wales this November and should see this as the perfect opportunity to end an 11-year wait for an unbeaten end-of-year tour, something South Africa hasn’t achieved since Heyneke Meyer was head coach of the Springboks.
In 2013, Meyer’s charges defeated Wales 24-15, Scotland 28-0 and France 19-10 on successive weekends to end the year on a high but in the years that have followed, the Springboks have lost at least once in November.
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The following year, the Meyer-led Boks lost twice, falling to Ireland (29-15) and Wales (12-6) in between victories over England (31-28) and Italy (22-6).
In 2016, Allister Coetzee’s Springboks team lost three times as England (37-21), Italy (20-18) and Wales (27-13) all clinched victories over South Africa, the Azzurri doing so for the first time in their history.
Coetzee held onto his job for another year and his side managed to fare better in 2017 but they did get hammered by Ireland (38-3) and lost to Wales (24-22) in between wins over France (18-17) and Italy (35-6).
In Erasmus‘ only November as head coach of the Springboks, his side controversially lost their opening game to England (12-11) after Owen Farrell’s high tackle on Andre Esterhuizen went unpunished. A late Bongi Mbonambi try would seal a narrow 29-26 victory over France while the Boks edged Scotland 26-20 a week later but ended their year with a 20-11 loss to Wales.
With Jacques Nienaber in charge during the 2021 November internationals, the Springboks would defeat Wales (23-18) and Scotland (30-15) but fell to a narrow 27-26 loss to England after Marcus Smith slotted a late penalty.
Most recently, the Springboks suffered back-to-back defeats falling to Ireland (19-16) and France (30-26) in 2022 but did thrash Italy 63-21 and dealt Eddie Jones his final defeat as England head coach in a 24-13 win at Twickenham Stadium.
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Strength in depth
Looking ahead to the 2024 fixtures, the Springboks will head into all three of their fixtures – versus Scotland, England and Wales – as favourites having won their most recent clashes with the trio.
Not to mention the fact that the Springboks have been in fine form this year, only slipping to one-point defeats to Ireland and Argentina, the latter when Erasmus opted to heavily rotate his squad.
Even in the event that the Bok boss opts to continue his rotation policy this November, the expectation will be a hat-trick of victories.
According to Afrikaans newspaper Rapport, Erasmus is targetting an unbeaten tour and frankly that should be the absolute bare minimum.
The Springboks have an ever-growing injury list with Jan-Hendrik Wessels (ankle), Damian Willemse (groin) and Frans Malherbe (ankle) joining Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Salmaan Moerat (both knee injuries), Steven Kitshoff (neck) and Lood de Jager (shoulder) on the sidelines.
But they have players that are more than capable replacements for those stars, some of which have been starved of opportunities in the Green and Gold and will be hellbent on making the most of their chance. Wilco Louw has been in stunning form for the Bulls and hasn’t played for the Springboks since 2021 while Thomas du Toit has been used sparingly in recent times but has been brilliant for Bath. Both players will be more than capable replacements for always-excellent Malherbe.
Meanwhile, Willemse has not played at all for South Africa this year with Aphelele Fassi shining in his absence at full-back while Erasmus always has the experience of Willie le Roux to fall back on. Johan Grobbelaar impressed against Australia and Portugal this year but was initially overlooked with Wessels’ front-row versatility preferred.
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This year’s opponents
Other than their strength in depth, Erasmus’ side should fancy their chances against Scotland – who they have beaten in their last eight encounters stretching back to 2012.
Knocking over Gregor Townsend’s charges at Murrayfield is no easy feat, just ask England, and they will undoubtedly be a tricky customer, particularly with their underrated scrummaging pack and lethal backs. However, last year the Springboks managed to suffocate that attack and pull away in the second half after a testing first 40 minutes at the World Cup.
During the July internationals, Scotland opted to tour the Americas and won all of their Test matches rather comfortably, meaning the last time that they were properly tested was the Six Nations. Townsend has many experienced internationals on his roster but the Springboks are in an advantageous position of being a bit more Test-hardened. The Scots should not be underestimated but a defeat at Murrayfield for Erasmus’ men will still be deemed as a shock.
England proved during the July internationals that they too should be underestimated as they pushed the All Blacks to the limit in both Test matches and almost knocked the Springboks out of the World Cup last year.
Steve Borthwick’s charges will be South Africa’s toughest challenge this November and England have a knack of beating the Boks at Twickenham. They have a pack that can push the Springboks to the edge and excellent backs, particularly if the Northampton Saints contingent are backed.
At the World Cup, England managed to nullify the Springboks’ maul and held their own for much of the match at scrum time. However, eventually, the pressure told with Borthwick not having sufficient depth off the bench. He has addressed much of that depth but England are now without the brilliant Farrell and likely to have George Ford on the sidelines too, two big drivers in that knockout game last year. Ollie Chessum’s injury is a massive blow to their chances of beating the Boks as he provided the perfect balance in the back-five to battle South Africa last year.
On balance, the Springboks should be expected to knock over England at Twickenham even by the finest of margins and Erasmus will have his side raring to go for what will be seen as their last big Test of the year.
England-South Africa Tests have been incredibly close in recent years and this will no doubt be the same but on current form, the Springboks have been better in closely fought encounters this year.
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Worse than losing to Italy
The Springboks’ final game of the year is up against Wales, who have yet to win a Test match all year. Wales and the Springboks have a history of tight encounters but the current team are honestly not near the quality of previous Warren Gatland-led sides.
A loss to the Welsh would and should be viewed in the same light as Coetzee’s team falling to a defeat at the hands of Italy but in fact, it would be worse as the 2016 Boks were at a new low and the Erasmus’ side are currently on the completely opposite end of the spectrum.
The current Springboks squad has been setting new records and creating history including four straight wins over the All Blacks, ending a long wait for victory in Brisbane and not forgetting the back-to-back World Cups, now attentions turn to a record up north – a first unbeaten November in 11-years and that has to be the bare minimum.
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