While England have won just one of their last 10 men’s Test matches against the All Blacks, their supporters still take encouragement from two recent results – both three years apart. The famous 19-7 win in the semi-finals of the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan was a sight to behold, and New Zealand no doubt have some lingering scars from that night in Yokohama.
The second is the last encounter between the two teams in Twickenham, also in the Autumn Nations Series, which culminated in a 25-25 draw that divided opinions among England fans. Perhaps England opted for the draw knowing New Zealand’s penchant for stealing a result late on, having come from behind to win on four of their last 10 meetings. Still, that November 2022 clash was a stirring example of England’s own ‘bouncebackability’, tying the match despite trailing 25-6 with just 10 minutes remaining.
Home comforts for the Red Rose
After two closely-fought Tests in New Zealand over the summer, England will look forward to returning home for this Autumn Nations Series opener. They have won three of their last four Test matches at the newly-named Allianz Stadium. Their most recent home match was arguably their finest performance under head coach Steve Borthwick, denying Ireland a Grand Slam in this year’s Guinness Men’s Six Nations. Still, those three wins have been nail-biters: all by margins of just two points or fewer.
New Zealand’s record in Europe
Ominously for England, Ireland, France and Italy – New Zealand’s opponents this campaign – the All Blacks have lost just one of their last eight matches against European opposition (W6, D1), winning each of their last four consecutively. That is their best run since winning seven such Tests in a row between 2017 and 2018.
It is hard to know where the All Blacks stand right now. Certainly in the shadow of the Springboks, who twice beat them in The Rugby Championship on their way to the title. Head coach Scott Robertson appears to have now put his faith in Beauden Barrett at fly-half after Damian McKenzie held the position for most of The Rugby Championship. But there were nonetheless many positives for New Zealand to take from that campaign recorded the best lineout success rate in The Rugby Championship this year (89%) and won 16% of their opponents’ lineouts.
Luckily for England, they are no slouches in the aerial department either, having enjoyed the joint-best lineout success rate in the 2024 Guinness Men’s Six Nations (91%, also achieved by Ireland).
Key players
In a sea of intriguing head-to-heads, it’s still hard to look beyond two back-row titans: Ben Earl and Ardie Savea.
All Black Savea made the most carries (89) and the second-most tackles (84) of any player in this year’s Rugby Championship, totalling a combined 173 – at least 14 more than any other player. Meanwhile, England’s Earl made the most carries (73) of any player in the 2024 Championship and beat the most defenders of any forward (24). Earl also made the most carries of any player during England’s Test series against New Zealand in July (44).
In 2023, Save was named World Player of the Year, and few have had as prolonged an impact on the Test scene over the past few years than the 31-year-old from Wellington. For his part, Earl has made no secret of wanting to be considered in the same bracket as the likes of Savea, and the Saracen is making all the right moves to get there.
Too close to call?
It speaks volumes about England’s trajectory under Borthwick that many pundits are either saying this game is too close to call, or even tipping them to win (as former Wales and Lions captain Sam Warburton has done). In a straw poll over at the Telegraph, two of five writers believe England will win, although all predict a close match.
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