LONDON (Reuters) – Ahead of the Autumn International Series we look at the form of rugby’s major nations a year on from the 2023 World Cup.
(In order of world ranking)
IRELAND
As world number one, Six Nations champions and fresh from a 1-1 drawn series in South Africa, it was no surprise Ireland coach Andy Farrell has stayed true to his established squad before stepping away temporarily next year to lead the British & Irish Lions.
Ahead of games against New Zealand, Argentina, Fiji and Australia, the chief nod to the future is Caelan Doris’s elevation to captain in place of Peter O’Mahony, who may be available later in November.
Ireland’s main concern is at hooker where first choice Dan Sheehan is ruled out until next year and Ronan Kelleher appears unlikely to make the opening test.
While Jack Crowley grabbed the jersey during Ireland’s Six Nations triumph, the contest to fill Johnny Sexton’s boots is still a live one and Ciaran Frawley’s more permanent move to number 10 for Leinster presents another option.
More intriguing could be the expected debut of Frawley’s highly touted Leinster teammate Sam Prendergast. The 21-year-old flyhalf impressed in a recent Emerging Ireland tour and a test bow against Fiji seems likely.
SOUTH AFRICA
The Springboks breezed to the Rugby Championship title this year with a commanding display that included back-to-back victories over New Zealand but also gave coach Rassie Erasmus the opportunity to see plenty of new faces and combinations.
He has used 49 players this year already as he widens his pool in preparation for what he hopes will be a hat-trick of Rugby World Cup titles in 2027.
South Africa’s forward muscle remains but a new, more adventurous attacking style with ball in hand has been added under the direction of ex-All Black flyhalf Tony Brown.
There have been teething problems but South Africa have won eight of their 10 Tests this year, losing to Ireland in Durban via a late drop-goal and by a point away to Argentina with a much-changed selection.
The core of the players who won the World Cup in France remain, though several will not make the next tournament and Erasmus is overseeing a steady transition.
New flyhalf hope Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has been exceptional in his debut international season but misses the November internationals with a knee injury.
Utility back Damian Willemse returns after a finger injury, but Aphelele Fassi has been a revelation at fullback and quite where Willemse will fit in remains to be seen.
NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand have plenty to prove in their November tests against England, Ireland, France and Italy after a disappointing maiden Rugby Championship for new coach Scott Robertson.
Two losses to South Africa and a home defeat at the hands of Argentina indicated that the All Blacks have yet to fill the substantial playing and leadership holes left by the post-World Cup departure of Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Richie Mo’unga and Aaron Smith, who won 443 caps between them.
However, the All Black production line of world class outside backs shows no sign of drying up — Will Jordan and Ruben Love are exceptional talents — and they have played some sensational rugby this year, but mostly in the first 60 minutes.
Once notoriously strong finishers, New Zealand managed just one score in the last quarter in six Rugby Championship tests and once again stalled in the second half last weekend after racking up a 43-12 halftime lead over Japan in Yokohama.
Robertson will hope to return home knowing which of Damian McKenzie or Beauden Barrett is going to be the best flyhalf option to get his backline firing – and when they do they still remain a deadly threat.
Matches against England, Ireland and France before what should be a more straightforward finale with Italy will stretch the All Blacks to their limits at this stage in their development.
FRANCE
Antoine Dupont is back after skipping last year’s Six Nations to prepare for the Olympics, where he played such a thrilling part in France’s march to the gold medal.
The mercurial scrumhalf has not played with the XV team since their 29-28 defeat by South Africa in the quarter-finals of the World Cup a year ago. He made his return in the Top 14 with Toulouse earlier this month with a bang, scoring three tries in nine minutes as a second-half replacement.
In the summer, France travelled to Argentina with a revamped squad containing several newcomers. They won their first game with the Pumas easily and then beat Uruguay but were humbled in their second match against the Argentines.
Oscar Jegou and Hugo Auradou were arrested for an alleged rape two days after the first test. The two players have denied any wrongdoing and said the sex was consensual.
Both have been left out of the November squad, as has fullback Melvyn Jaminet following his suspension for a racist social media post.
Flanker Anthony Jelonch is making a comeback nine months after sustaining a serious knee injury, in a 42-man squad that features eight uncapped players.
Flyhalf Romain Ntamack, who missed the World Cup and the Six Nations with a knee problem, is absent after sustaining a calf injury earlier this month.
France face Argentina again in their final November clash after games against Japan and New Zealand.
ENGLAND
After coming so close to reaching a second successive World Cup final a year ago, England’s rebuild under Steve Borthwick has been more evolution than revolution, with the one seismic change being the absence of Owen Farrell, who ended his 11-year international career to play in France.
Performances since have been encouraging, with results less-so. A statement win over Ireland in the Six Nations was followed by a close Paris defeat by France, while two narrow away losses to New Zealand were also opportunities missed as England led all three games in the final quarter.
Backroom chaos, most notably the resignation of defence coach Felix Jones after seven months, won’t have helped Borthwick’s preparations for games against New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Japan, but there is a positive feel around the team and among supporters.
The introduction of free-running George Furbank at fullback was an unexpected statement of intent by Borthwick, while winger Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and all-action centre Ollie Lawrence are the focal points of a more ambitious approach.
Facing a battle-hardened New Zealand first will obviously be a stiff challenge. Their last Twickenham meeting in 2022 was a draw but England have won only one of their last nine meetings on home soil.
ARGENTINA
For the first time, Argentina claimed a win over all three of their vaunted opponents in the Rugby Championship, notably beating New Zealand away (for a second time after their initial win in Christchurch in 2022) and following it up with home triumphs over Australia and South Africa.
Felipe Contepomi, who came in as coach after last year’s fourth-place finish at the World Cup, has developed a more expansive approach and tightened up on their often wayward discipline.
But results through the year show Argentina remain a mercurial outfit with, despite all their passion, a propensity to let things slip when their backs are to the wall.
They lost the first of their two-test home series to a second-string French side in June and in 2024 have been beaten in four of nine tests.
SCOTLAND
Scotland have the capability to upset the top teams, shown by four successive Calcutta Cup wins over England, but consistency remains elusive for Gregor Townsend’s side.
To illustrate the point, in this year’s Six Nations they followed a home win over the ‘Auld Enemy’ with defeat in Italy and eventually finished fourth in the standings.
Star flyhalf Finn Russell returns to the squad for the November internationals after being rested for the mid-year tour of the Americas, where Scotland were barely stretched against Canada, the U.S., Chile and Uruguay.
Russell claims to be in the best form of his career after a move from French club rugby to Bath and, complemented by the running and try scoring ability of wing Duhan van der Merwe, they should have an interesting month with games against Fiji, South Africa, Portugal and Australia.
ITALY
Coming off their most successful Six Nations Championship this year, Italy are desperate to back it up next month and, though they start against Argentina and finish versus New Zealand, who hammered them 96-17 at least year’s World Cup, it is the middle game against Georgia which they are targeting.
Georgia won the last meeting between the teams two years ago and are routinely touted as replacements for Italy in the Six Nations, whenever relegation is proposed. The Italians would love nothing more than to claim a statement win.
Italy beat Tonga and Japan and lost to Samoa in the summer and coach Gonzalo Quesada has kept faith with the newcomers he introduced this year.
Wing Louis Lynagh, back row Ross Vintcent and fullback Matt Gallagher are all included in the squad, while experienced flyhalf Tommaso Allan returns from his international break.
The last Autumn series two years ago brought Italy a maiden win over Australia and, though an All Blacks scalp looks beyond them, they will go into the other two games with real belief.
AUSTRALIA
Australia’s four-match tour looms as a key test of the progress made under Joe Schmidt this season and should give a strong indication of whether the Wallabies will be competitive against the British & Irish Lions next July.
Just one win and a good few thrashings at the hands of South Africa, New Zealand and Argentina in six Rugby Championship tests suggest that Schmidt’s young squad are not yet ready to compete with the best in the world.
That said, there were signs of an improved physicality and glimpses of attacking creativity under Schmidt’s wily guidance.
The return of Will Skelton and Samu Kerevi should further help with the former and there will be plenty of interest in how quickly big-money rugby league convert Joseph Suaalii finds his feet in the backline.
Unsurprisingly, given the small window Schmidt has had to turn around a Wallabies programme left utterly demoralised by Eddie Jones’s miserable World Cup campaign, inconsistency has been a big issue this season, with continuing questions over whether playmaker Noah Lolesio is at the heart of the problem.
It is a mark of how far the twice world champions have fallen over the last decade that a Grand Slam to match that achieved by the 1984 Wallabies looks like a pipe dream for a team now ranked 10th.
The England and Ireland tests that bookend the tour might be beyond them at this stage in their development, but wins over Scotland and Wales, who they beat twice on home soil in July, would probably earn Schmidt a pass mark.
WALES
Coach Warren Gatland will be desperate to end a nine-game losing streak when Wales face Fiji but question marks over his long-term prospects with the current pool of players remain.
After defeat by Argentina in the quarter-finals of the World Cup, Wales lost all five games in this year’s Six Nations, suffered a heavy defeat in a one-off test against South Africa in London in June and were second best in back-to-back matches against an ailing Australia side in July.
They face the Wallabies again next month before finishing off against South Africa.
The loss of key players to retirement in the last 18 months has depleted the squad of experience and quality but Gareth Anscombe is back for the first time in a year to take over at flyhalf from Dan Biggar.
Hooker Dewi Lake keeps the captaincy role he held alongside Morgan at the World Cup, though this time as the sole leader of the group.
(Reporting by Mitch Phillips, Nick Mulvenney, Mark Gleeson, Nick Said, Julien Pretot, Padraic Halpin and Trevor Stynes, editing by Ken Ferris)
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