Rassie Erasmus has a few significant selection calls ahead of the Springboks’ first November international against Scotland on Sunday.
South Africa head to the home of Scottish Rugby where they kick-off their Autumn Nations Series before clashes follow against England and Wales.
Erasmus has rotated his squad regularly throughout the year, particularly during the Rugby Championship, but we predict that he will select an experienced and largely first-choice side for the opening two matches this November.
Still, there will be some key selection calls the Bok coaching team will need to make for the clash against Scotland, who hammered Fiji in their first November international, as South Africa aim to go unbeaten in their northern tour for the first time in 11 years.
Half-backs
Even with injury to rising star Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Erasmus is spoilt for choice in his half-backs. At scrum-half, he has three World Cup winners to pick from in the form of Jaden Hendrikse, Cobus Reinach and Grant Williams with Faf de Klerk overlooked after missing the Rugby Championship through injury. Meanwhile, there are three quality options at number 10 in Handre Pollard, Manie Libbok and Jordan Hendrikse.
As mentioned above, Erasmus has rotated his Springboks squad quite a bit this year and scrum-half has been the position to see the most change which makes selecting the starting number nine on Sunday all the more tricky. Williams was the go-to selection for the Boks off the bench at the start of the year before he got his shot in the number nine jumper against the All Blacks. The speedy half-back missed the last two Tests against Argentina with Reinach starting the first and Hendrikse the second.
It’s entirely possible that whoever starts at 10 will influence who the starting nine is as Hendrikse and Libbok were selected as the pair on the bench and then started against Los Pumas, with the opposite true for Reinach and Pollard.
This is certainly a luxurious position for Erasmus and attack coach Tony Brown to be in as they can base their selection on how they intend to start or finish the game. A combination of Hendrikse or Williams along with Libbok would provide more attacking flair and a speedier approach while Reinach and Pollard offer experience and probably more game management.
It’s difficult to predict which way the coaching staff will lean as all six of the half-backs are in great form.
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Filling Frans Malherbe’s void
For the first time in a long while, the Springboks are without their powerhouse tighthead prop Frans Malherbe, who has been ruled out of the Autumn Nations Series through injury. It’s a particularly significant blow for the side as they square up against a vastly underrated Scottish scrummaging pack.
However, scrum coach Daan Human has no shortage of quality replacements in the number three jumper with Thomas du Toit, Wilco Louw and Vincent Koch primed to fill Malherbe’s void.
Again all three players are in cracking form and whoever misses out on the matchday 23 can certainly feel hard done by.
Koch has been a mainstay amongst the replacements for the Boks and it will be interesting to see whether he is backed to earn what would be just his 13th start in his 59 appearances or if he will edge closer to a half-century of caps off the bench.
Bath star Du Toit has been backed for the starting role in each of his four appearances for South Africa this year and it is quite telling that he fronted the media along with forwards coach Deon Davids last week. It seldom occurs that a Bok player appears in a press conference and doesn’t crack the matchday 23 but whether he starts or comes off the bench is the real debate.
With Ox Nche and Bongi Mbonambi also set to feature, Erasmus could field an all Sharks front-row in some form with Koch, but again will that be in the starting XV or from the replacements?
Nortje or Mostert or Snyman?
Reports over the weekend state that Ruan Nortje will be given the responsibility of running the lineout against Scotland despite Franco Mostert’s return to the squad after recovering from a broken leg.
Nortje took his opportunity in the starting line-up during the Rugby Championship with both hands and certainly deserves another crack if the reports are to be believed.
However, that raises the question as to what happens with Mostert and RG Snyman, particularly with the latter shining for Leinster in the United Rugby Championship. Do the pair feature in a 6-2 or even 7-1 split on the bench or does Erasmus snub one of the two double World Cup winners altogether?
Again, this is another headache that few international head coaches have and further highlights the incredible depth the Boks have at their disposal.
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Fassi or Le Roux?
After Damian Willemse’s withdrawal from the tour, the decision on who should start at full-back essentially comes down to one question: do the Springboks need another playmaker in the backline or is a more athletic option required? Willie Le Roux is the answer for the former and Aphelele Fassi for the latter.
It is rather unfair to box the two talents in such a way but essentially those are their two main strengths despite being well-rounded players.
With Finn Russell and Blair Kinghorn set to return for Scotland, the experience, kicking prowess and overall tactical nous of Le Roux is probably better suited to combat the Scottish strengths, but if the Boks decide to counter the clever kicking game of Gregor Townsend’s backs with blistering pace and aerial skills, then Fassi is Erasmus’ man.
The make-up of the bench, more on that shortly, is another contributing factor with this one but ultimately, there isn’t really a right or wrong answer here.
How much ammo does the Bomb Squad need?
The set-up of the Springboks bench always generates debate and their first game of November is no different.
Last year at the World Cup, Erasmus and then head coach Jacques Nienaber opted for a 6-2 split against Scotland while the Boks have chopped and changed between that and a 5-3 split this year.
With Snyman and Mostert back in action, perhaps a 6-2 akin to that from the 2019 World Cup is on the cards while one cannot rule out the chance of Erasmus selecting two back-rowers, like he did during the Rugby Championship, to target Scotland’s breakdown. The Scots weren’t overly sharp in that facet of the game against Fiji despite the excellence of Rory Darge and Matt Fagerson in that area of the game.
If Erasmus does load up on the heavy artillery up front, then Williams is most likely the choice as the impact number nine with one of Le Roux, Pollard or Libbok.
The Bok boss has preferred Malcolm Marx as the replacement hooker when he and Bongi Mbonambi have been fit this year which would suggest a likely front-row contingent of Marx, Gerhard Steenekamp and one of Du Toit and Koch.
Kwagga Smith is almost surely an automatic selection but there question remains will he be joined by one or two of Elrigh Louw, Cameron Hanekom, Snyman, Mostert and Marco van Staden?
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