HERE’S one way of looking at it. Ireland went from creating history by winning a test series in New Zealand last summer 12 months to coming up short to the same opposition on neutral soil a year ago.
In itself, that may not seem to convey a whole lot, so here’s another way of looking at it: would you rather win a summer series or a World Cup quarter-final?
The source of the alleged animus between Ireland and the All Blacks is less the poor man’s this or that, has nought to do with enjoying retirements either. Friday’s test match in Dublin is the first renewal since October 14 last year. That was the only game Ireland absolutely had to win in a four-year cycle, and it happened to be against New Zealand.
It shouldn’t go under the radar that Ireland beat South Africa in that same World Cup, and split a two-test series with them down there last summer. It’s not like anyone on the outside is throwing poison arrows at Ireland and their number one world ranking or the direction they are going. But the dogs on the street know there’s an itch to scratch for Andy Farrell and his players – an eighth RWC quarter final loss in excruciating circumstances in Saint Denis.
That’s the plot for the Stade sequel.
In a New Zealand mindset, massive autumns come once every four years. Dublin might, only might, be the most significant challenge on this tour (there’s a score to settle with the French), but Scott Robertson knows that the next autumn series that really matters to him is in 2027 in Australia. He has four autumns to win a World Cup. That’s what he will be judged on. That’s what his calculations are working back from. He has time.
France put 27 on New Zealand in the World Cup opener but among the many things All Black rugby has taught us over the years is they are fast on the pick-up. Fool me once etc…
The view remains of Ireland that when it comes to the biggest moments they haven’t done it and as much as this Test scratches the itch, it won’t balm it. It might even fester it. You can’t change the past but you have to learn it.
Given what comes after it would be facile to think that the All Black test shapes Ireland’s, and Farrell’s, autumn but it really doesn’t. Sports people look at the now. Ireland will be all in for sure, and they have 48 hours to process and bin it from their heads. People find that crazy but unless it’s the final game of a tournament and a season, it’s next up. For Ireland on Monday that’s Argentina, for the All Blacks it’s off to the Stade de France again.
One interesting sidebar: it will be mild and dry here in Dublin Friday night, a rarity for November internationals. A true rugby Test will break out.
This relationship is no longer master and apprentice. Ireland play the All Blacks on an equal psychological footing these days. Despite going in cold, the hosts will be slight favourites to win. Scott Robertson (henceforth, Razor), has a way to go with this All Blacks group. He will get there, of that I am sure, but there are issues with New Zealand rugby.
I know one thing – the penalty Anton Lienert Brown conceded to England a week ago for the George Ford kick that hit the post has no place in Test rugby – tackling a player off the ball. He might get away with that in Super Rugby, but tackling fellas wildly is a big no and an area where Ireland retain a decisive advantage (defensively) over tonight’s opponents. Ireland watch the ball, New Zealanders watch the man. Watch how many black jerseys will put shots on green jerseys without the ball at the Aviva. I make this confident prediction: it will gift Ireland six points and in this sort of tight test arm wrestle, six points is the difference between winning and losing. Their system is, I have A, you have B, he has C, whereas the big shift in the modern game is defending the ball, and on this New Zealand rugby is still behind the curve.
Remember the New Zealand you see in Dublin has nothing like the personality that will take effect in due course under my former Crusaders boss. He has lost a number of gladiators from years past so he has his work cut out. Even looking at the Crusaders he won half a dozen Super Rugby titles with. An entire front row gone – Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody. Sam Whitelock has retired, Matt Todd, Kieran Read also gone, Richie Mu’onga is in Japan, as was Ryan Crotty. Throw in that Beauden Barrett is also missing the game. It’s a nascent process.
It’s a slightly distorted comparison, but with South African teams gone from the Super Rugby championship, New Zealand players are missing a bite in the same way Irish provinces would be better served in the URC if they were playing France and England players week in, week out. Who are these New Zealand players against most weeks for good rugby?
Nevertheless, no one can dispute there is still an aura about the All Blacks. They are a big brand. They may not be the best rugby team in the world at the moment but when they come to town with as charismatic a coach as Razor, it’s Big Top stuff.
All Black head coaches, at least recent vintage, have been personality opposites to the new man; Razor will prove a real 180 degree in that respect. His strength is the everyday detail, his good spirit, his honesty, not hiding his frustration or delight particularly well. That’s Razor, we had a nice chat last night and he’s as enjoyable a person to be around as anyone I know, but personality and charisma will only bring you some of the way towards the Webb Ellis.
Will Jordan might get you another bit. Mark Telea grabbed the decisive tries at Twickenham but Jordan is the freak. He is still only 26 and has a try-scoring rate that will, in all probability, blow Doug Howlett’s out of the water. He already has 33 tries in 38, Doug has 49 tries in 62 matches. And now he is getting the opportunity at full back. That’s the gamechanger with the additional real estate he gets to work in compared to the modern day telephone box options as a wing.
It’s quite disconcerting watching this boy train. Unbelievable acceleration is one thing, but he never appears to struggle with any fatigue. He doesn’t blow up. He trots like a dressage horse. It’s mind blowing watching his actions. He listens respectfully to what you are saying, he takes it on board but filters it to the extent that is really, wordlessly, telling you, just give me the ball. He likes to avoid the unnecessary complications of life. Sometimes it’s just catching it and putting it down, he says. He is from the Kevin Keegan school of structure. You score four tries, we’ll score five.
There is no comparison at this remove, but from an Irish perspective looking ahead, Jamie Osborne is very interesting. In the sense of where he has come in a short time, he looks a fella who is going to be very hard to leave out when things get serious. He had an impactful summer tour. When you are not in the team you have to do 25% more than the incumbent to turn heads and, to his credit, he achieved most of that in South Africa. Though he is not involved, and seems fourth choice nine, a mention too of Caelan Blade alongside Osborne and Ciaran Frawley when we refer to lads who made a dent against the world champions. Blade only got a chance because Craig Casey failed a HIA in the first test, but he left a mark. Of that I am sure. There’s plenty of ceiling above Ireland and their upcomers this autumn.
No-one should be remotely surprised that Jack Crowley gets the nod to start in the pivot.
Andy Farrell was never going to kill Crowley with a bad call, and that’s what you do if you start a guy with three starts at ten for Leinster this season, and two from 22 appearances last season. Of course, all the pressure is on Crowley now, but you can flip that into a positive with Frawley in with 30 to go. The Leinster man might even be more suited to the last 30 in the context of space. It’s a stretch to describe him as a genuine ten and his game will profit more from a stage in the Test when space is opening up.
Go easy on Crowley. He is a good example, as a ten, of someone who is operating in a club environment that is less than optimal. You don’t look good. It remains one of the game’s lasting truisms: you look great as an out half when the team is winning. Crap though when they’re going backwards.
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