The Autumn Nations Series has arrived in full swing and one of the treats that comes with it this weekend is Scotland hosting the world champion Springboks on their hallowed Murrayfield turf.
It will be the teams’ first meeting since their pool match in last year’s Rugby World Cup which was a fierce contest that will be remembered for Manie Libbok’s sensational no-look cross kick.
Much has happened since then for both outfits as Scotland endured another mixed Six Nations followed by a storming tour in the mid-year, albeit against weaker opposition but still impressively powered by the title success of Glasgow Warriors in the United Rugby Championship last season.
That URC winning side forms the backbone of Scotland’s side for this Test led by the masterful Sione Tuipulotu while Tom Jordan’s debut last week is enough to move serial winner with Toulouse Blair Kinghorn to the wing.
Masterful fly-half Finn Russell will be at the helm this week and he will be praying the settled pack ahead of him can take the heat from South Africa and still offer something for him to work with – this is probably why Gregor Townsend has gone for six forwards on his bench.
Scotland team v Springboks: Finn Russell and co. bolster the starting XV as Gregor Townsend loads his bench for Murrayfield showdown
The Springboks on the other hand have gone from strength to strength in 2024 not only winning all but two Tests but doing so as an evidently evolving side who are eager to throw the ball around and play under the guidance of new attack coach Tony Brown.
Erasmus is building towards an unprecedented World Cup three-peat and has not been shy to rotate out his trusted veterans using a whopping 49 players in the 10 Tests this year. This made his lineup this week impossible to predict and boy oh boy did the veteran coach surprise us… again.
It’s 50 up for Kwagga Smith but the real headline is a 7-1 split on the bench and much-changed backline. In fairness, we should stop being surprised by the decisions the radical innovator Erasmus makes but what is frightening is that even with 11 changes this team could beat many Test nations.
14 years have gone by since the hosts last triumphed over the Springboks and while the Scots will always wear brave hearts they will need everything they have to trump the world champions. We get the feeling a blockbuster Test is loading.
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Where the game will be won
It is impossible for us not to talk about the battle up front with the Boks fielding seven forwards on the bench and Scotland six. Erasmus’ plan is blatant, he wants to obliterate the Scottish forward pack from start to finish. The main point of leverage for this is the scrum and South Africa certainly has the advantage in this facet.
Pierre Schoeman and Zander Fagerson are solid scrummagers in their own right but they hardly match the quality of Ox Nche and Thomas du Toit. Even if they do, Vincent Koch and Gerhard Steenekamp arrive fresh off the bench. Schalk Burger feels Scotland has no chance to get parity but they absolutely need to otherwise the Springboks are going to continuously walk their way upfield time and again.
Scotland could target the Boks’ line-out which was stabilised by Ruan Nortje but with the second-row out the South Africans could be vulnerable in this area with Franco Mostert running the set-piece having played no rugby since July. If the hosts manage to destabilise this area then it depowers the penalties the Springboks will likely win at scrum-time.
Finally, bench impact. The Boks pride themselves in the Bomb Squad which goes Nuclear for the first time since the World Cup final with seven forwards. Scotland needs to match the elevated intensity near the back end of the game and if they do there is always the chance the Boks get caught out by the risk of having just one backline star on the bench.
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Last time they met
What they said
Ex-Springbok Bobby Skinstad praised Scotland centre Huw Jones after his solid performance against Fiji declaring that the former Stormer is one of the best on the globe.
“Huw Jones, for me, he’s been under-recognised as a player for a long time,” Skinstad told the BBC’s Scotland Rugby Podcast.
“I think Jones is probably one of the best centres in the world. I love the way he runs, I love the way he distributes. He’d fit into a South African team.”
Meanwhile, legendary flank Schalk Burger doubts the Scots will handle South Africa at scrum-time.
“I think for them parity will go a long way. If they do get parity it will be a tight game but I don’t think they can get parity this weekend, not even close.”
Springboks legend Schalk Burger: ‘I don’t think Scotland can get parity this weekend, not even close’
Players to watch
Glasgow man Tom Jordan was sensational on debut against Fiji. Every time he had the ball he tried to make something happen, he was brave defensively and relished every moment of his cameo. On the back of his club form and based on the kind of player he is, this is a well-deserved opportunity for the star. Massive game loading.
Anyone who has read our previews previously knows that we are big fans of centre pairing Huwipulotu and it is just because they are bloody good together. Huw Jones runs those piercing support lines while skipper Sione Tuipulotu makes such good decisions with the ball in hand and has all the skills to match. Alongside Russell the duo need to make the most of any decent ball they get.
As aforementioned it’s a forwards game and the established Scottish back-row of Jack Dempsey, Rory Darge and Matt Fagerson need to be at their best. Their role will be chief disruptors for the Springboks ball at the breakdown and in defence. Townsend needs these stars to empty their tanks in a big way.
Moving onto the visitors one very unlucky player is Andre Esterhuizen who in any other circumstance would have a boatload more caps. Regardless with Damian de Allende resting the ‘Agent of Chaos’ will be eager to make an impact on the 12 shirt. There is no questioning the Shark’s quality and he will want to issue the coaches a reminder of that.
There are many different kinds of fly-halves and Handre Pollard is one of those expert thinkers, the kind of player who understands the game before it happened and the absolute worst man from a Scottish perspective to be behind such a strong pack. If he is given the expected platform he will keep the Boks in the right area of the field, make very few errors and squeeze out the hosts with a smile on his face.
Elrigh Louw at blindside is a sneaky experiment and one that could pay off given his form in the role for the Bulls. The back-row has announced himself at Test level this season and this is his chance to prove that not only is he a handy number eight but also a possible successor to the great Pieter-Steph du Toit who comes off the bench in this one.
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Main head-to-head
Typically we like to keep this between players but this time it is between units; the front-rows. When we said earlier that the battle up front would make or break the result we absolutely meant it.
Pierre Schoeman faces an old teammate Thomas du Toit. The pair packed down together for South African U20 in days gone by and now they face off at the highest level. Schoeman is a hardened Test player who is a core figure for Scotland and he needs to get one over Du Toit who is terribly unlucky to sit behind Frans Malherbe and Vincent Koch all the time. The Bath man is no slouch himself but this is the easier of the prop battles to win for Scotland.
The reason for this is that Retshegofaditstwe Nche is simply in a class of his own and it would be a screamer of a performance from Zander Fagerson to win this battle. That comes with great respect for the Scot but since that performance off the bench against England in the World Cup semi-final Nche has only improved.
The team that wins this battle is halfway to winning this Test.
Prediction
It is always challenging not to come across as overly critical of a side like Scotland when they face a remarkably strong team in South Africa but the reality is that even with 11 changes the Springboks are scary. Townsend’s team is a really good Scotland side and they will have moments in this game where they have momentum and the crowd gets behind them. However, the quality of the Springboks forwards in the starting lineup and on the bench is simply too much for the hosts. South Africa to win by 15-20 points.
Previous results
2024: South Africa won 18-3 in Marseille
2021: South Africa won 35-15 in Edinburgh
2018: South Africa won 26-20 in Edinburgh
2015: South Africa won 34-16 in Newcastle
2014: South Africa won 55-6 in Port Elizabeth
2013: South Africa won 28-0 in Edinburgh
2013: South Africa won 30-17 in Nelspruit
2012: South Africa won 21-10 in Edinburgh
2010: Scotland won 17-21 in Edinburgh
2008: South Africa won 14-10 in Edinburgh
Teams
Scotland: 15 Tom Jordan, 14 Blair Kinghorn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (c), 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Dylan Richardson, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 Jamie Ritchie, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Stafford McDowall
Springboks: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Kwagga Smith, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 22 Jasper Wiese, 23 Grant Williams
Date: Sunday, November 10
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 16:10 GMT (18:10 SAST)
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
Assistant Referees: Luke Pearce (England), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
READ MORE: How to watch Scotland v Springboks at Murrayfield: TV channel, live stream, kick-off time
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