A victory against France at Stade de France and Scott Roberston will have posted
the numbers he needs for his first season in charge to be considered a success.
But it’s unfair to judge success on numbers alone and consider a season purely through the single prism of results.
Winning matters, of course it does. All Blacks coaches don’t have the luxury of pretending they don’t, but a win against France and another the following week in Turin against Italy, and Robertson’s first season in charge will have netted 11 wins from 14 tests, which is a 79% success ratio.
In the context of the All Blacks overall history, their professional history and in comparison with other head coaches in their first seasons in charge, that’s a number that stands up to scrutiny.
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That’s a number, should it be achieved, that stands comparison with the Springboks in 2024 as they have so far played 11 and won nine, for an 82% success ratio.
There is, though, a need to drill a little deeper to contextualise the season and look for other key markers that indicate growth, the potential for that growth to be sustained and maybe most importantly, a clear trend that the coaches, players and management are all developing a deeper understanding of what it takes to prepare each week and deliver in line with expectation.
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And it’s in the fine detail that Razor’s regime is starting to show definitive signs of improvement between now and when he started in July.
There is a consistency of selection now that wasn’t apparent in the first half of the season – and it has come with a greater sense of Robertson and his selection team trusting their instincts and rewarding performance.
But, arguably, the single most significant shift has come in the way Robertson and his selection team have learned how to pick their bench to complement their starting XV, and how they have learned how to utilise their reserves.
What’s occurred is a recognition that the bench is not necessarily a depository for those players deemed second best in their respective positions but has to be selected against a highly detailed strategic plan to ensure that the right skill sets are on the field in the closing stages.
And the team to play France perfectly illustrates how Robertson is coming to grips with selecting a 23 as opposed to a 15.
He’s resisted the temptation to retain Asafo Aumua and Damian McKenzie after their coming-of-age performances last week in Dublin, and so too has he kept Patrick Tuipulotu on the bench despite now having a performance claim to usurp Tupou Vai’i in the starting team.
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Just as significantly, there has been an astute recognition that Cam Roigard, after two successive starts on the bench, has built the game sharpness to start ahead of Cortez Ratima at halfback.
The overall balance of the selection suggests that due consideration has been given to how the All Blacks can work France over through the full 80 minutes, and how important it is to have high-impact punch in the closing stages.
And in the case of Barrett specifically, he’s starting not just because he’s deemed the best game manager, it’s partly also because for all that McKenzie played well in Dublin, his real value to the team comes in his ability to change the tempo and dynamic of the attack once there is an element of fatigue in the opposition.
“We talked about it. It was tough,” Robertson said of the decision to start Barrett ahead of McKenzie.
“It is a great discussion to have when you have two 10s in form, both good tacticians and both kicking well.
“The one thing about D-Mac he is probably the best off the bench in the world in his role when he comes on. It is a good selection headache to have.”
What also has to be recognised as a major win for Robertson, is the way he has nurtured and developed his options to create the requisite depth to furnish a quality bench.
Looking back to the start of the season in July, the All Blacks simply didn’t have the players they needed to populate a 23-man game-day squad.
Now, the likes of Tamaiti Wiliams, Aumua, Vai’i, Tuipulotu, Wallace Sititi, Sam Cane, Roigard and Caleb Clarke have all either advanced significantly on where they were as test players in July, or returned from injury and created that depth of competition that has made selecting the bench a more time consuming and considered art.
“We didn’t have any discussion because the bench was the bench and we didn’t actually have anyone else,” is how Robertson says things were back in July.
“Now we have got two or three guys – it is difficult not to play Ethan DeGroot, but the other two [Ofa Tuungafasi and Pasilio Tosi] are playing great footy. It is as simple as that.
“The impact Ofa has made is a prime example. Ethan has done everything he can, he has been exceptional off-field and owned the situation he is in, and we have gone for performance. We have rewarded performance.”
All Blacks v France, Sunday 9.10am
Live commentary on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio. Live match blog at nzherald.co.nz
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