Talking Rugby with Andy Nicol, Jason White and Calum Crowe
It has all been a bit stop-start for Scotland with the South Africa match being sandwiched by two non-events against Fiji and Portugal. Do they need to beat Australia for it to be a successful autumn campaign?
Calum Crowe: Yeah, 100 per cent. Let’s not beat around the bush here. We were playing against Fiji’s reserves and a Portugal team who are part-time and ranked No 15 in the world. Gregor Townsend spoke about it being a chance to grow the squad depth, but the games didn’t really prove anything in the grand scheme of things. If those end up as Scotland’s only two wins of the autumn, it would be a failure. Realistically, three wins from the four matches always looked like it would be the benchmark for Scotland to achieve pass-marks.
Jason White: Ultimately, yes, we do need to beat Australia for it to be seen as a successful Autumn series. The team need to take a step forward and make the improvements from having what we believe are a golden generation with the potential to win a Six Nations and actually doing it. The frustrating event would be playing well, being competitive and being on the wrong end of the scoreboard.
Andy Nicol: Quite simply, yes. I stated before the Autumn Series started that wins against Fiji, Portugal and Australia, and a competitive performance against South Africa, would be a good autumn for Scotland.
We have achieved the first three but the last one has gotten a whole lot harder with what Australia have done in the last two weeks. It wasn’t that long ago that they were conceding over 60 points against Argentina with everyone saying that the Lions tour next summer would be a whitewash for the Lions. Beating England and Wales in consecutive weeks in the way that they have has changed things considerably.
Van der Merwe was not at his best in the defeat to world champions South Africa
Andy Nicol reckons Townsend should drop Van Der Merwe for Australia game
Townsend needs a victory against Wallabies for Autumn series to be considered a success
The Six Nations isn’t all that far away. Does Gregor Townsend need to win this game in order to show he’s still the right man to lead Scotland into that championship when it comes around early next year?
CC: Yeah, I think he does. It’s not necessarily just about this series in isolation. Look at the bigger picture. Scotland had a poor World Cup 12 months ago and then followed that with a poor Six Nations this year, winning only two matches and losing to Italy in Rome. If they were to compound that with a poor Autumn campaign, it would only heighten the feeling that Townsend has taken this team as far as he can. Whether the SRU would actually make any moves to replace him before the Six Nations, I’m not so sure. His contract runs until 2026. But for any head coach to preside over three failed campaigns in a row, serious questions would need to be asked.
JW: I can’t see Gregor Townsend being replaced even if we lose heavily at the weekend. Given the stage of the season and the upcoming Six Nations so soon into next year, the real test will be where we finish in the table when that championship comes around. With three home games, and England looking beatable at the moment, we must aim to be challenging for the championship in the last weekend versus France.
AN: I think we need to put this to bed. Gregor Townsend will be Scotland head coach in the Six Nations whatever happens on Sunday. There are a number of international coaches under pressure for their job but that is because they are losing games, their teams lack an identity and their attack and defence are not functioning. These conditions do not apply to Townsend and Scotland. If Scotland underperform in the Six Nations, then it might be a different story, but not for now.
In terms of team selection, the back three looks like it could give Townsend the biggest headache. Is there any way Tom Jordan starts ahead of Blair Kinghorn at full-back? Or could Kinghorn get in ahead of either Darcy Graham or Duhan van der Merwe on either wing?
CC: I just don’t see it. Unless any of them were to suffer an injury or a total loss of form, I don’t see how anyone gets in ahead of Kinghorn, Graham or Van der Merwe. They are nailed on as Scotland’s first-choice back three.. Townsend loves Jordan’s versatility and the fact he’s able to cover fly-half, centre and full-back. That will make him the ideal bench player, but I don’t think he gets into Scotland’s first-choice team. I also think it’s quite poor that Jordan has chosen to leave Glasgow and join Bristol next season barely five minutes after making his Scotland debut. It leaves the impression that these foreign players are essentially just mercenaries looking for a way into Test rugby. I understand the financial aspect of it all. But Glasgow deserved a bit of loyalty for giving him his big break in professional rugby. To leave so soon after making his Scotland debut is a bad look.
Tom Jordan has been highly impressive for Scotland during the Autumn Tests
JW: For me, Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe are almost untouchable at the moment. I can’t see them being dropped, leaving a straight choice between Blair Kinghorn and Tom Jordan. Unquestionably, Jordan is in fine form and has been electric with ball in hand and also physical in defence. Kinghorn struggled to make any significant impact versus the Springboks, but he was not the only one. If Blair does get the spot, he needs to lay down a marker for himself, the coaches and even the Lions selectors.
AN: Before the start of the Autumn Series, I thought the back three was absolutely nailed on as Darcy Graham, Duhan van der Merwe and Blair Kinghorn. Tom Jordan’s performances so far has changed my thinking. He should start at 15 on Sunday with how he has played and then it is a choice of who plays on the wing. I would go with Darcy and Blair and leave big Duhan out because I have just not seen enough appetite from him this season. He is a big-match player who can do extraordinary things, but he is not quite at his best and was pretty much anonymous against South Africa.
What about the back row? Jack Dempsey has been ruled out of the squad. Who gets the nod in his absence and how will it affect the overall balance of the back row?
CC: Dempsey is a huge loss as he’s been Scotland’s best back-rower over the past year or so and their most powerful ball-carrier. The most obvious move would be for Matt Fagerson to slot in at No 8, Rory Darge to continue at openside, and Jamie Ritchie to come back in at six. But trying to second-guess what Townsend will do with former captain Ritchie has now become a fool’s errand. Luke Crosbie could cover six whilst providing a good option in the lineout, whilst Josh Bayliss is an all-rounder who can cover pretty much every position in the back row. But, for me, I would go with Ritchie and challenge him to reproduce the form that earned him the captaincy in the first place. He’s still only 28. The comeback needs to start somewhere…
Jack Dempsey will be a huge loss for Scotland against the Wallabies
JW: Jack Dempsey has consistently been our most dynamic and physical ball-carrier in the forwards. I would go for Jamie Ritchie or Josh Bayliss to fill the hole. If they go with Jamie, Matt Fagerson takes on more of the ball-carrying duties and Jamie brings his breakdown strengths in or Josh, who is more like for like with Jack except he is more of a carrier relying on speed and evasion than power.
AN: Firstly, Dempsey is a big loss as he has been brilliant for Scotland for quite some time now. His ball-carrying has been exceptional due to good pace and good footwork and he brings such an energy to his game whether in attack or defence. Matt Fagerson could move from 6 to 8 with Rory Darge continuing at 7 so the question is who will get the blindside role? Jamie Ritchie or Luke Crosbie would be in the mix but they might keep Fagerson at six and bring Josh Bayliss in at No 8. He would be the most similar to Dempsey so this would be my choice.
What have you made of Australia under Joe Schmidt? They seem to have turned a corner from the debacle of last year’s World Cup under Eddie Jones.
CC: Should we really be surprised? Schmidt is a world-class coach who won a Grand Slam with Ireland. All in all, he actually won three Six Nations titles with the Irish. He also won two Heineken Cups during his time in charge of Leinster. He’s a proven operator at the highest level. He served on the All Blacks’ coaching staff for a few years and I think he would have been stung just a little bit to essentially have been passed over when they chose to appoint Scott Robertson last year as their new head coach. But he’s breathed new life into the Wallabies and their form has been as good as anyone during this Autumn Series.
Joe Schmidt has turned out to be a revelation as head coach of the Australians
JW: They have been the most improved side during this Autumn series and seem to be buying into what Joe Schmidt and the coaches want them to do. The key for them is the X-factor players they have in their backs, now the forwards have been delivering consistently well and giving them front-foot ball they have looked very dangerous. The only mitigation is we know Wales are not in a good spot right now, so they may have flattered with the final score last weekend.
AN: Australia have improved immeasurably under Joe Schmidt but only in the last few weeks as they had a poor Rugby Championship. Eddie Jones was a joke when he was with Australia and set them back years in some ways. Schmidt has picked up the pieces and, slowly but surely, turned things around. They have always had good players, especially in the back but they have real physicality and power up front which has surprised me a little.
The Wallabies look like they’ve unearthed a star in Joseph Suaalii. What did you make of his display at Twickenham when they beat England? Is he the real deal?
CC: Some of his offloads were just outrageous. He reminded me of a prime Sonny Bill Williams. He was just freestyling at times. To produce that level of performance on what was his first ever game of Rugby Union after switching codes was just incredible. Suaalii will add a whole new dimension to the Wallabies’ attack and will be the player they build their backline around in years to come. The prospect of him going up against Sione Tuipulotu is hugely exciting. It could well be a dress rehearsal for next year’s Lions Tour Down Under.
Rugby league convert Suaalii was sensational for Australia in win over England
JW: He looks like a genuine star. His natural athleticism and game awareness has already set him apart. Comparisons to Israel Folau and Sonny Bill don’t look misplaced but he will still need to nail the starting jersey first and then play his part with helping the Aussie team consistently win some big games, which they have not done for a long time.
AN: For Suaalii to play so well against England in his first game of rugby union since he was at school was insane. He looked in total control of his game and what was happening around him. For a centre to look that comfortable with all that happens in that position was remarkable and tells you everything about this guy. Mind you, they dropped him for the Wales games last week so they have some strength in depth in their squad.
Given that the British and Irish Lions will tour Australia next year, how big a chance is this for Scotland’s players to lay down a marker? On current form, who would make it into a Lions squad?
CC: It is certainly an opportunity to familiarise themselves with the Wallabies and to show what they can do. But, given that Andy Farrell is likely to pick so many Ireland players, it’s really the Six Nations next year where Scotland players need to be on top form if they are to force their way into Farrell’s thinking. I think Finn Russell will be the starting fly-half. Beyond him, Sione Tuipulotu should be in the starting XV at centre. Zander Fagerson will most likely be the bench replacement for Tadhg Furlong. Blair Kinghorn or Hugo Keenan at full-back is a toss-up. Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham will also be in the squad as well, although whether they both make the team I’m not sure. Huw Jones, Pierre Schoeman and Ben White will also be in contention as well.
Finn Russell is likely to be a first pick for Lions, but other Scots still have to impress
JW: With three home games in the Six Nations, our boys have it all there for them. A victory versus Ireland in our second game would go a long way to achieving a good number of Scots and finishing the tournament with something to play for in the last round will keep our players in the conversations with the coaches and press. If we were to pick it now, I would have Zander Fagerson, Rory Darge, Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones and, potentially, our first-choice back three of Darcy, Duhan and Blair Kinghorn.
AN: If Scotland beat Australia well, then there is no doubt that Andy Farrell will take notice of that, especially with the Wallabies beating England and Wales in the last two weeks. My Scottish Lions right now are Zander Fagerson, Pierre Schoeman, Finn Russell, Sione Tuipuloto, Huw Jones, Blair Kinghorn, Duhan Van Der Merve with Scott Cummings, Jack Dempsey, Rory Darge, Darcy Graham and Tom Jordon all in the mix as well.
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