Let us start the new year by debunking an Irish rugby conspiracy theory.
“You know” the conspirators start, glancing over their shoulder checking for rugby spies, “they,” meaning the English, Scots, Welsh, Kiwis and those diabolical French, “have figured us out”.
This conspiracy theory believes that Ireland’s highly successful attacking system, that has been implemented by the national team for several years across multiple Six Nations campaigns, a winning tour of New Zealand and a Rugby World Cup, has until now miraculously remained a highly-kept secret.
If you need to go into the kitchen and grab some aluminium foil to fashion into a protective helmet before we discuss how absolutely ridiculous this theory is, now is the time to do it.
If you subscribe to the “they have figured us out” theory as the basis for Ireland’s below optimal attacking form I have some very bad news for you. Every team on the global stage understands, in minute detail, what every other team is doing in all aspects of play.
It is called analysis.
I hate to break it to you, but it has been going on since Tom Brown picked up a soccer ball at Rugby School in 1823. The very next day the opposition captain said, “Chaps, that bounder Thomas Brown may very well pick up the ball today. If he does, smash him”.
However primitive it was highly effective as they quickly had Master P. Brown figured out.
At its core rugby analysis is conducted by a dedicated and highly intelligent cadre of rugby nerds who use computer software programs to categorise, edit and share every single aspect of play so that grumpy, scheming coaches can create deviously cunning tactical plans that aim to toss spanners into their opposition’s attacking and defensive systems.
So, to a point the “they have figured us out” theorists are right. Every team has every other team figured out. What the conspiracy theorists are missing is that figuring out what other teams are doing is the easy part.
Eben Etzebeth of the Springboks in action against Argentina. Knowing what the Springboks do and stopping them from executing it are two completely different tasks, Photograph: Dirk Kotze/Gallo Images/Getty Images
Stopping great teams from playing the way we know they can play is exceptionally hard.
For example, if we consulted with a well-coached Under-15 team and asked the young players to describe how the Springboks attacked I would wager they could give us a reasonably accurate description of the Boks’ tactics.
The Springboks select a giant pack of forwards with seven more on the bench. Using these 14behemoth they will scrummage for penalties, then either kick to touch to maul the following lineout or have their very high percentage goal kicker take the shot to keep the scoreboard ticking over. They will attack with high crossfield kicks that they will contest with their locks and backrowers.
Add a bucket of red-hot aggression inside a defensive system that sprints forward like early-morning bargain hunters at the opening of the Black Friday Day sales and you have a reasonably accurate picture of the simple Springboks game plan.
Knowing what the Springboks do and stopping them from executing it are two completely different tasks, because the Boks implement this uncomplicated game plan with such ferocious physicality and exceptionally high skill levels that it has them sitting as the rightful world champions.
Every other national team understands, in great detail, how the South Africans will play but very few have been able to stop them because they are so magnificent at imposing their plan on the opposition.
Here let us remember that rugby is always in a state of constant evolution. Change is the only certainty. With the retirement of the great attacking mind of Johnny Sexton, Ireland’s attack is also in a state of evolution.
Since Johnny Sexton’s retirement, Ireland’s attacking game remains in transition. Photograph: Dan Sheridan/Inpho
Once again Charles Darwin’s theory must be heeded. Charlie said that it is not the strongest who survive, but those who best adapt to their changing environment.
Ireland’s attacking game is based on multiple passing interplay between backs and forwards, with each ball carrier inside this complex system empowered to make decisions.
Those decisions are made even more difficult as they must be executed while carrying the ball deep into the opposition’s defensive system.
This attacking system is based on the “gain line theory”. Developed in 1927 by the New South Wales Waratahs who toured Europe and America, they conquered the great rugby nations of the day using the same gain line attacking theory as Ireland use today.
Gain line theory is full of beautiful counter initiatives.
Crucially, it places the skills of the attacker under great pressure, because they make their decision a split second before making contact with the defenders, so gain line theory places even greater pressure on the decision-making of the defenders.
Ireland have an astonishing four wins from five matches against the world champion Springboks. A major factor in this domination is that, by its very nature, the South African rushing defensive system leaves holes because the sprinting defenders disconnect from each other.
Ireland celebrate Ciaran Frawley’s match-winning drop goal against South Africa in Durban last July. Photograph: Dan Sheridan/Inpho
Irelands gain line theory, short passing, attacking system is perfectly designed to exploit these micro holes. This has the Springboks supporters saying, “Those dastardly smart Irish have figured us out”.
Under Joe Schmidt, last November the Wallabies slowed their defensive line speed and stayed connected, leaving very few gaps, which made Ireland’s short-passing game far more difficult to execute.
So the Springboks’ defence will have to evolve in a similar manner to counter Ireland’s attacking game just as Ireland’s attacking game must evolve under Jack Crowley or Sam Pendergast to counter more connected defensive systems.
This is the never ending Yin and Yang of rugby’s evolution. As one generation retires the next must accept stewardship and grow their team’s game.
Knowing what opposition attacking teams’ systems do is the easy part. Countering the spontaneous talents of teams when they are led by the attacking genius of players like Sexton, Antoine Dupont, Beauden Barrett, Finn Russell and to a lesser degree Marcus Smith – that is truly challenging.
Ireland’s attacking system from both set play and phase attack is among the world’s best. However, it requires exceptional decision-making from the ball carrier. When Ireland get it right it is a joy to behold. When they don’t then the conspiracy theorist whisper, “They have figured us out”.
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