Tadhg Furlong’s injury adds to Ireland’s concerns as they look to defend their crown
Ireland will need consistency if they are to become the first country to win a third consecutive Six Nations title.
Three changes have formed a level of instability in the Irish camp – Andy Farrell’s sabbatical ahead of the British & Irish Lions tour, inconsistent form over the Autumn Nations Series, and a growing list of injuries all could throw them and provide an opportunity for one nation to cause a major upset.
Scotland face Ireland on Saturday, and since the tournament changed from Five to Six Nations in 2000, they have only beaten the back-to-back champions five times.
Last year, Ireland denied Scotland their closest chance, resulting in a 17-13 defeat, a streak which has lasted since 2017 and one the Scots will be trying to break.
Ireland’s biggest issue became clear when Tadhg Furlong was sidelined with a calf injury against England. Without the tighthead prop, Ireland are missing a key component of their revered front row alongside Dan Sheehan and Andrew Porter.
The consequences of not having this preferred set-up were evident in the autumn as Sheehan was out of action after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament in the South African summer Tests and Furlong’s calf injury continued to impact his season, their scrum potency declined.
While they won 96 per cent of their own put-in in both sets of fixtures, in the autumn their wins against the head dropped from 14 per cent in the Six Nations, to 4 per cent. Ireland lacked a clinical edge in a broader sense too, conceding 26 penalties across their first two matches and having 28 handling errors from the final Australia match alone.
When the golden trio are lined up in the front row, their attack is formidable. Their 3.6-second ruck speed was the fastest in the 2024 Six Nations, according to Opta, winning possession 98 per cent of the time on their own breakdown. Furlong missing, put simply, is music to the ears of the Scottish pack.
Sheehan will be starting from the bench again on Saturday, having done the same against England last weekend. There seems to be concerns the Six Nations fixture list could be too demanding for the hooker. His slick passing exchange with James Lowe in the build-up to his try against England, however, gave him confidence that he still had his mojo.
“That was just a moment that probably showed the confidence I still have in my game and that I haven’t lost it,” he said.
While Ireland are missing key personnel in the front five, Scotland’s have gone from strength to strength. Zander Fagerson is Scotland’s most capped prop with 71, and is primed for a Lions call-up on current form.
South Africa-born Schoeman is a powerful option off the bench (Photo: Getty)
With Rory Sutherland replacing Pierre Schoeman at loosehead, Gregor Townsend has a solid platform of energy and experience to put either side of 12-times-capped hooker Dave Cherry, who keeps his place after impressing against Italy.
The trio are a different scrummaging unit to the one seen in the autumn but will be sure to have the pacey game Scotland are known for with their clear outs.
Furlong’s absence is not the only thorn in Ireland’s side. Head coach Farrell’s sabbatical to prepare for the Lions’ tour has left interim boss Simon Easterby looking for the solutions to any tactical conundrums on-field. Which brings us to potentially the second bump in the road to the Championship for the Irish.
While change can be a good thing, it can also create instability even with a promotion from within – take Wales’ 2017 dip in form during Warren Gatland’s Lions tenure. Under Rob Howley, they suffered three defeats, marking their worst Six Nations performance since 2010.
We still know little of how Ireland will function under Easterby, but it is not a certainty they will simply pick up where Farrell left off. The manner of the 13-23 loss to New Zealand in the autumn – a team even a patchy England side ran closer at 22-24 – also suggests it is not a foregone conclusion Ireland will waltz to another title through sheer strength.
Easterby will look to find stability within the squad where he can, as shown by his reselection of Caelan Doris as skipper, who seeks to fill the leadership role vacated by Johnny Sexton following his retirement after the 2023 World Cup.
Whereas Doris steps into the boots of a retired legend, Rory Darge and Finn Russell have been named co-captains in the absence of the injured Sione Tuipulotu.
Stafford McDowall started at inside centre against Italy and assistant coach Steve Tandy seemed convinced that his Glasgow Warriors teammate and captain can fill the void.
The growing consistency of Townsend’s side in spite of setbacks suggests they could be the biggest challenge Ireland face this tournament. Scotland have the home advantage which plays into their favour as four of the previous five victories over the Irish have taken place at Murrayfield.
If Scotland can build some momentum after their opening win against Italy and hope Ireland were shaken up a little by England in Dublin, an upset could be on the cards.
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